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Conservatives set to clash over the Northern Ireland Protocol

As the new British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak inherits many difficult tasks left unresolved by his predecessors, including the issue of the Northern Ireland Protocol. This was an agreement negotiated during the Brexit process involving the European Union (EU), Northern Ireland, and the United Kingdom. The agreement guarantees policies such as free movement within the Emerald Isle, agency over Northern Irish trade agreements, and EU regulations over Northern Ireland (Elgot, 2022). In absolute terms, Northern Ireland has effectively skated around Brexit and remains a party to the EU single market for goods and services, which Scotland and Wales were unable to arrange for themselves. The Protocol has found massive support amongst the Irish republicans, with polling reflecting that such. Around 55 percent of Northern Irish voiced that they are amenable to the terms (Raphael, 2022). Still, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), Northern Ireland’s largest Loyalist group, is all but pleased. The DUP has led a boycott of elections, stating that they will continue to sit out until Northern Ireland is granted their Irish exit from the EU. Former British Prime Minister Liz Truss maintained the same position, even since her days in the Foreign Office. She had initially been a massive proponent of the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, which would unilaterally override particular articles of the Protocol, a move that has raised massive complaints from Brussels and the United States. It is expected that Rishi Sunak will proceed more circumspect given his emphasis on economic stability, but he is nonetheless foreseen to hold with the former British government’s position on the Protocol and signal to the EU that Britain is still unflinching in their rejection of the regulation (Turner, 2022).

The issue of Irish unity predates even the modern European Union. The delineation of Northern Ireland as a separate entity from the Republic of Ireland was the result of a 1921 decision by the British Parliament to divide the two regions to allow for the Protestant descendants of British settlers to remain British while granting Irish nationalists their independence (BBC, 2022). While this was a suitable resolution for the moment, the partition was still massively flawed. A large portion of the Northern Irish population wanted a unified, Irish Catholic state, and tensions continued to rise. This eventually led to a 30-year period of internal and often violent conflict between the 1960s to 1998, colloquially referred to as “The Troubles”(BBC, 2022). The end of the conflict was marked by the signing of the Good Friday Agreement, which recognised the special status of Northern Ireland, especially relating to matters of governance independent from Britain and the promotion of unity between North Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Most importantly, however, was the enshrinement of the Principle of Consent. The agreement stated that if there was ever a time when the majority of Northern Ireland wished to be united with the Republic, Britain is legally obligated to fulfill that wish.

The Northern Ireland Protocol is, in many ways, a spiritual successor to the Good Friday Agreement. It re-codified the original provisions for post-Brexit Britain, re-emphasising the importance of freedom of movement between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland (Edginton, 2022). Irish Catholics living in Northern Ireland have long believed that the Island should be united, but for most of the 20th century, they have not been a majority. Today, in 2022, they have that majority (Carroll, 2022). On the other side of this split are the Descendants of English Protestant settlers, who historically made up the majority of Northern Ireland’s population. They also tend to skew towards the Unionist party for their representation. Politically, Unionists and Conservatives have been uniformly opposed to the Protocol. They claim that it further separates Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom, and sets in stone the border created by the Irish Sea. The bigger problem for the prime minister and the DUP stems from the EU trade regulations on Northern Ireland, directly impacting the shipment of goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Their camp claims that these regulations are causing food shortages and are further aggravated by the free trade agreements between Northern and the Republic of Ireland, which were made in accordance with the EU’s single market regulations. Nationalists have conceded that some kinks may be worked out within the Protocol. In particular, some of the specific regulations regarding meat and produce might have scope for renegotiation. Still, they insist that scrapping these articles altogether would violate their sovereignty and independent agency in signing international agreements. Not only are they in favour of EU regulations on trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, but they are also in favour of the de facto membership to the European Union’s "single market," as it allows for the avoidance of a formal border between them and the Republic, further enhancing unity between the two. Downing Street sent a notice to Brussels stating that they are going to continue to allow produce like meats to be shipped from Britain to Northern Ireland to pass through unchecked (regardless of whether those shipments comply with EU regulations), a unilateral move that flies directly in the face of their commitments made in the Protocol. World leaders (not just limited to the European Union) have stated their concerns about these actions, including disapproving sentiments from the United States, one of Britain’s most important allies.

During Joe Biden’s U.S. presidential election run in 2020, his position on Brexit remained primarily consistent with the moderate Democrat line of non-interference. However, he did go out of his way to warn then Prime Minister Boris Johnson that if Brexit talks damaged the Good Friday agreement, he would not be willing to sign a new US-UK trade deal (Chi-Sing, 2022). However, Brussels has expressed interest in reaching a compromise, offering an extendable grace period in 2021. When Britain announced their commitment to not enforcing EU regulations on trade between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, Brussels announced that the EU would be willing to renegotiate the Protocol as a whole, reducing the customs and checks from the originally agreed standards (Fleming, 2022). Strong-arming an institution like the European Union does not seem to be an adequate political solution, and if the Protocol ends up being revoked unilaterally, Northern Ireland and the EU have voiced the possibility of seeking punitive action. Regardless of whether the Conservatives are right in their belief that EU regulations are driving economic insecurity in the region, action that could provoke the EU into trade sanctions would undoubtedly result in more economic insecurity.

The situation as it currently stands is tense. The DUP has been fairly unflinching, stating that they will accept nothing short of completely revoking EU-imposed trade standards. However, the Labour Party’s reactions have begun to match their opposition’s intensity. Peter Kyle, shadow Secretary for Northern Ireland, has stated that if “certain conditions are met” he would be willing to call for a new referendum on Irish unity (Carroll, 2022). The implications of this would be disastrous for the Unionist party, as nationalist sentiments have been steadily on the rise in recent years. The May 2022 elections in Northern Ireland certainly suggest the same. The largest party in Northern Ireland today is Sinn Féin, marking the first time an Irish Nationalist party has been the largest seat holder in the country since its inception as a state (Coniam, 2022). However, the DUP has now been actively boycotting their role in governance for Northern Ireland, stating that they will not claim their role until the Protocol has been reworked or revoked. This means that Sinn Féin is unable to form an executive, due to Northern Ireland’s power-sharing structure (where the second largest party must elect a deputy first minister for the executive). It is clear now that there need to be open negotiations between all parties to reach a suitable compromise, or force a referendum. A dramatically limited government and hostility between its two largest parties are only harming the Northern Irish people and undermining the democratic will of the state, which has shifted from its traditional British unionism towards Irish nationalism.

Works Cited

Carroll, Rory. “Shadow Minister's Border Poll Remarks Alarm Northern Ireland's Unionists.” The Guardian. Guardian News and Media, September 26, 2022. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/26/shadow-minister-peter-kyle-border-poll-remarks-alarm-northern-ireland-unionists

Carroll, Rory. “Catholics outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland for first time.” The Guardian. Guardian News and Media, September 22, 2022. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/22/catholics-outnumber-protestants-northern-ireland-census

Chi-Sing, Haley. “Biden and British PM Truss Talk Northern Ireland Protocol in Congratulatory Call.” Fox News. FOX News Network, September 7, 2022. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-british-pm-truss-talk-northern-ireland-protocol-congratulatory-call.

Coniam, Morwenna and Peter Flannagan. “Sinn Fein is Northern Ireland’s biggest party for the first time.” Bloomberg. Bloomberg L.P, May 6, 2022. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-06/sinn-fein-tops-first-choice-votes-in-northern-ireland-election

Edginton, Tom. “Brexit: What is the Northern Ireland Protocol?” BBC News. BBC, October 10th, 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-53724381

Elgot, Jessica, and Lisa O Carroll. “Liz Truss 'Preparing to Scrap Parts of Northern Ireland Protocol'.” The Guardian. Guardian News and Media, May 10, 2022. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/may/10/liz-truss-preparing-to-tear-up-northern-ireland-protocol-reports.

Fleming, Sam. “Brussels Offers to Reduce Northern Ireland Border Checks.” Financial Times. Financial Times, September 12, 2022. https://www.ft.com/content/6840d753-6675-4c13-b222-ade281840fa6.

“Good Friday Agreement: What Is It?” BBC News. BBC, August 1, 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-61968177.

Kula, Adam. “Ex-Northern Ireland Secretary Suggests 'There May Be Grounds' Soon to Call a Referendum on Irish Re-Unification.” Belfast News Letter, September 26, 2022. https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/ex-northern-ireland-secretary-suggests-there-may-be-grounds-soon-to-call-a-referendum-on-irish-re-unification-3856135.

Raphael, Therese. “Brexit: Would Liz Truss Trigger Article 16 of Northern Ireland Protocol?” Bloomberg.com. Bloomberg, September 2, 2022. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-09-02/brexit-would-liz-truss-trigger-article-16-of-northern-ireland-protocol?leadSource=uverify+wall.

Turner, Camilla. “Steve Baker joins the big beasts declaring support for Rishi Sunak.” The Telegraph. The Daily Telegraph, October 23, 2022. Steve Baker joins the ‘big beasts’ declaring support for Rishi Sunak