Assessing Afghanistan in 2023: A Security Driven Analysis

When one views the Central Asian nation of Afghanistan, they are drawn to the natural landscape of valleys and towering mountains that comprise the topography of the country. Due to Afghanistan’s striking nature, it is difficult for foreign observers to find the words to adequately describe the state. Similarly, the same can be said for the politics of Afghanistan with the turmoil that has consumed the country for decades on end. Similarly, it is a difficult prospect for Americans who saw their nation engage in a war that seemed to drag on for decades and seemed to lack a defined objective. In a dramatic turn of events, a nation that was once an epicenter of great power competition between the Soviets and Americans according to Hauner, Grau, and Gress (2002), has now been left alone to its devices due to external great power competition between the West and Illiberal states.

Impacts of the American Withdrawal

Although many previous presidents had expressed interest in bringing American troops home from Afghanistan, it would ultimately be President Biden to make the decision to officially withdraw from Afghanistan (Inhofe, 2022). The most immediate consequence of the American withdrawal from the country was the fall of the Ghani-led government in Kabul. This ramification would ultimately lead to a crisis of human security for individuals who had affiliations with the former administration (Rubin, 2022). Among the chief concerns for American policymakers was whether the nation would become an incubator for terrorism as it once was prior to the American intervention into the country (Jones, 2022). As the Taliban have tried to consolidate power, they have additionally waged a campaign against the ISIS-K presence within the country (Faiez, 2023).

The withdrawal from Afghanistan has also had a large impact on how the United States conducts foreign affairs. An important discussion that is ongoing within the American foreign policy space has been the debate between the interventionism that brought the U.S. into quagmires in the Middle East and a burgeoning movement that favours a restraint oriented foreign policy (Moyn, 2023). As the event is still fresh, there is even debate on whether anything of value can be learned from America’s time in Afghanistan (Brands, 2021). While proponents of restraint have been provided an opportunity to have their voices heard in the aftermath of the withdrawal, current geopolitical conditions have favoured those with more hawkish views.

Furthermore, the withdrawal has also had ramifications on relations with America’s partners abroad and who are security actors within the region. Firstly, the event produced a rift between the U.S. and Europe on matters of defence and on foreign policy. The decision to involve other NATO members in the American mission within Afghanistan, predominantly from Europe, had been at the behest of the United States. Due to disagreements regarding how the event transpired, European policymakers have been keen to begin an internal debate as to whether they should develop a common army to best address its aspirations as a more assertive security actor (Finabel, 2021). To aid in this aim, the Europeans have also begun talks of further developing their technological capabilities to reduce their asymmetry in respective defence industries to the U.S.(Csernatoni, 2021). The absence of Western forces has invited regional powers such as Iran and Pakistan to have a more defined role within the Central Asian state leaving the future of Afghan affairs to a rapidly evolving regional dynamic.

Effects of Taliban Takeover in Afghanistan

In August of 2021, Kabul would ultimately fall to the Taliban, who celebrated the withdrawal of American troops from the country (Wesel, 2021). However, their tenure as administrators of Afghan governance is not going as planned due to a myriad of issues. Aside from their reprisal killings of former Ghani administration officials, the Taliban have drawn international condemnation for banning women from receiving higher education that had been available to them under the previous government (Ahmadi and Ebadi, 2022).

The Taliban have also had issues with handling the economy of Afghanistan due to mistrust among Western donors following their ascension to power. In the Ghani led government, a significant degree of the nation’s GDP had been derived from external aid (Cordesman, 2022). Mistrust between the Taliban and the West ultimately has led to the freezing of funds belonging to the previous government as Western policymakers believe that there is a risk of the Taliban not being good stewards of government funds (O’Donnell, 2022b). The real victims of this back and forth have been the citizens of Afghanistan who had to endure a historically harsh winter where many suffered from the cold and starved (Mukhtar, 2022).

A significant ramification that the Taliban takeover has been the loss of human capital and the plight faced by those who fled from the country. According to the Watson Institute (2021), millions of Afghans have fled the country both during the Afghan War and since the Taliban takeover. Since the fall of Kabul, they have fled to neighboring countries but also to nations far away such as Iran and Turkey. When there, they faced not only challenges to their human security but also to such basic things as education for their children (Seddighi et al., 2022). Further compounding their plight has been the recent devastating earthquake in Turkey and Syria which has housed not only Afghan refugees but displaced people from around the region (Wilson, 2023).

Forecasting Afghanistan in 2023

While it is difficult for any geopolitical analyst to predict the future with a high degree of certainty, there are strong indications that certain emerging trends will continue to impact Afghanistan. One pattern that has a strong chance of continuing is the involvement of regional powers such as China and India in Afghan affairs. China has increased its presence within the country since the American withdrawal by increasing its economic engagement with the Taliban (Kapur, 2023). The underlying interest to mitigate terrorism will be the glue that holds relations between the regional powers it borders, but it will be tenuous due to a lack of common ideals. Furthermore, the loss of human capital will affect the economic prospects of Afghanistan for years to come. Additionally compounding this issue is the Taliban’s style of governance which will produce a stagnant nation at best and an unstable one at worse. However, current conditions suggest Afghan society leaning towards the latter given the instability of its neighbors and the lack of experience in having sustained security missions among the regional powers interested in Afghan affairs(Afza,l 2023). When these factors are taken into account, it becomes clear that engagement is the least a state can do to try to improve conditions for the average Afghan but any state that would attempt to have the same degree of involvement as the Americans will undoubtedly find themselves in a quagmire.

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