Al-Qaeda in Retrospect: Twenty Years after the Twin Towers

A decade after 9/11, Al-Qaeda has definitely faded from the international consciousness. Osama bin Laden, the self-appointed arch-nemesis of the United States was killed in Abbottabad, Pakistan in May 2011, leading to a seeming irreversible decline of his already faltering organization, with its formerly lofty prestige plummeting following its eclipse in brutality and boldness by the Islamic State. But a recently released video, which barely made headlines, has shown that despite its recent setbacks, Al-Qaeda is alive and kicking.

The video in question depicts an elderly, bespectacled man adorned with white robes, seated in front of a somewhat amateurish green-screen. This man, though bookish and harmless in appearance, is nothing of the sort, for he is Ayman Al-Zawahiri, the current Emir of Al-Qaeda and former longtime deputy to Osama bin Laden. Decisively rebuffing rumors of his death, Zawahiri addresses the camera in an hour-long speech titled: “Jerusalem Will Not Be Judaized”, with his murmurings mostly focusing on the Palestinian cause, along with the other current theatres of jihad. “We must fight the battle on different fronts, united as though a single Ummah. Palestine is thus Kashmir, Kashmir is Grozny, and Grozny is Idlib” (Zawahiri, 2021) Zawahiri thunders. Interestingly, he barely mentions the September 11th attacks, and completely omits the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan- leading some to suspect that the speech was prerecorded. On the subjects, he mentions: “And let us not forget that nineteen mujahideen, the warriors of Islam, stabbed America in the heart… an injury the likes of which America had never tasted before… and today [the U.S.] is making its exit from Afghanistan, broken, defeated, after twenty years of war. Glory and praise belong to Allah alone” ((Zawahiri, 2021).

The speech’s fixation on Al-Qaeda’s current ‘struggles’ indicates that rather than resting on its bloody laurels, the group is eager to reassert itself as the leader of international jihad after a decade of complete irrelevance. And the current geopolitical climate- such as the vanquishing of the Islamic State, along with the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan- provide enormous opportunities for a resurgence. With its more devilish offspring reduced to isolated and desolate pockets across the globe, the leadership for militant Salafism currently remains vacant, something which the moneyed and well-connected Al-Qaeda could fill. Meanwhile, the triumph of the Taliban allows for enormous strategic depth for Al-Qaeda, as the organization now has friendly territory to reconstitute its apparatus without fear of elimination by the US or its allies. The Taliban may have repeatedly stated that its territory will not be used as a safe haven for terrorism, and to some extent this may be true (out of fear of reprisals), it is an established fact that it has remained in close coordination with Al-Qaeda even before its seizure of power, and the long history of both groups makes it doubtful that the Taliban would suddenly expel some of their closest allies. According to a Department of Defense Report released in April 2021: “The Taliban have maintained mutually beneficial relations with AQ-related organizations and are unlikely to take substantive action against these groups (Byman, 2021). If anything, it is possible that the Taliban may try to limit the operational scope of Al-Qaeda to prevent the aforementioned reprisals, but given the current strategic objectives of Al-Zawahiri and his colleagues, this may not even be an issue.

In accordance with Al-Zawahiri’s speech, Al-Qaeda has as of recently given priority to deepening its reach within the MENA region. It currently has six core branches stretching from the Sahel Desert to the Indian subcontinent, with several more affiliate groups- fielding members in the thousands (Zelin, 2021). However, it should be noted that the organization (if it could be even characterized as such) is nowhere near its operational capability pre-9/11. There are no large-scale training camps that existed in Afghanistan in the late 1990s, and since September 11th there have been no attacks of such scale in the West (Byman, 2021). Due to the efforts of the United States-led coalition, the entirety of 2020 has seen several senior and affiliate leaders assassinated across the MENA region, leading the group to continue to diffuse its power to more independent affiliates like Al-Shabaab or AQAP (Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula).

However, with his allies in power in Afghanistan, Zawahiri may seek to reorganize Al-Qaeda into something more akin to the Bin Laden-era of the group- a centrally-governed and dynamic organization that doles out orders to its fighters across the world. And without sustained military pressure by the American-led coalition, this may become a tangible reality.

Sources

Memri. Zawahiri 9/11 Speech . MEMRI, Middle East Media Research Institute, 13 Sept. 2021, https://www.memri.org/tv/al-qaeda-leader-ayman-zawahiri-vid-2o-anniversary-nineeleven-attacks-mujahideen-stab-america-afghanistan. Accessed 28 Oct. 2021.

Byman, Daniel. “Analysis | the U.S. Is Pulling out of Afghanistan. Don't Expect an Al-Qaeda Reboot.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 30 Apr. 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/05/01/us-is-pulling-out-afghanistan-dont-expect-an-al-qaeda-reboot/.

Zelin, Aaron Y. “Jihadis 2021: Isis & Al Qaeda.” Wilson Center, https://chinafellowship.wilsoncenter.org/article/jihadis-2021-isis-al-qaeda.

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Hamza Al-Muhaisen is a sophomore at Wesleyan University, double majoring in English and History